Opinion formation and the resilience of diversity

This project explores agent-based models of the formation of individual opinions and collective judgments. The goal is to understand the effect of political communication on opinion formation and collective decision making

Pharmaceutical Use Following Generic Entry: Paying Less and Buying Less

We study the effects of generic entry on prices and utilization using both event study models that exploit the differential timing of generic entry across drug molecules and cast studies. Our analysis examines drugs treating hypertension, high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and depression using price and utilization data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We find that utilization of drug molecules starts decreasing in the two years prior to generic entry and continues to decrease in the years following generic entry, despite decreases in prices offered by generic versions of a drug. This decrease coincides with the market entry and increased utilization of branded reformulations of a drug going off patent. We show case study evidence that utilization patterns coincide with changes in marketing by branded drug manufacturers. While the reformulations---often extended-release versions of the patent-expiring drug---offer potential health benefits, the FDA does not require evidence that the reformulations are improvements over the previous drug in order to grant a patent. Indeed, in a number of experiments comparing the efficacies of the patent-expiring and reformulated drugs do not find statistical differences in health outcomes calling into question the patent-extension policy.

Networks of Mobilization: Student Involvement in a Municipal Election

An enduring issue in the study of political participation is the extent to which political awareness and engagement are socially or individually motivated. We address these issues in the context of a municipal election which generated a high level of political engagement on the part of college students for whom the election was relevant. An effort was made to interview all these students using an on-line survey, and the students were asked to provide information on their friendship networks. The paper demonstrates that awareness and engagement are not simply a consequence of individually defined interests and awareness, but rather that individuals are informed and engaged based on their locations within structured networks of social interaction

The South, the suburbs, and the Vatican too: explaining partisan change among Catholics

This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual’s social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000

Opinion Dynamics of Learning Agents: Does Seeking Consensus Lead to Disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of complex multidimensional issues. We consider agents which can classify issues into for or against. The agents arrive at the opinions about each issue in question using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean Perceptron to state its opinion. If there is no internal clock, so the update occurs with asynchronously exchanged information among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society thorn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. The curious result is that it is learning from those that hold the same opinions that drives the emergence of factions. This results follows from the fact that factions are prevented by not learning at all from those agents that hold the same opinion. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped and the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. We also study the less realistic, but technically simpler synchronous case showing that global consensus is a fixed point. However, the approach to this consensus is glassy in the limit of large societies if agents adapt even in the case of agreement.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, revised versio

RNA-based therapies in inherited retinal diseases

Inherited retinal diseases (IRDs) are a genetically and phenotypically heterogeneous group of genetic eye disorders. There are more than 300 disease entities, and together this group of disorders affects millions of people globally and is a frequent cause of blindness or low-vision certification. However, each type is rare or ultra-rare. Characteristically, the impaired vision in IRDs is due to retinal photoreceptor dysfunction and loss resulting from mutation in a gene that codes for a retinal protein. Historically, IRDs have been considered incurable and individuals living with these blinding conditions could be offered only supportive care. However, the treatment landscape for IRDs is beginning to evolve. Progress is being made, driven by improvements in understanding of genotype-phenotype relationships, through advances in molecular genetic testing and retinal imaging. Alongside this expanding knowledge of IRDs, the current era of precision medicine is fueling a growth in targeted therapies. This has resulted in the first treatment for an IRD being approved. Several other therapies are currently in development in the IRD space, including RNA-based therapies, gene-based therapies (such as augmentation therapy and gene editing), cell therapy, visual prosthetics, and optogenetics. RNA-based therapies are a novel approach within precision medicine that have demonstrated success, particularly in rare diseases. Three antisense oligonucleotides (AONs) are currently in development for the treatment of specific IRD subtypes. These RNA-based therapies bring several key advantages in the setting of IRDs, and the potential to bring meaningful vision benefit to individuals living with inherited blinding disorders. This review will examine the increasing breadth and relevance of RNA-based therapies in clinical medicine, explore the key features that make AONs suitable for treating genetic eye diseases, and provide an overview of the three-leading investigational AONs in clinical trials

Pervasive sensing to model political opinions in face-to-face networks

Exposure and adoption of opinions in social networks are important questions in education, business, and government. We de- scribe a novel application of pervasive computing based on using mobile phone sensors to measure and model the face-to-face interactions and subsequent opinion changes amongst undergraduates, during the 2008 US presidential election campaign. We nd that self-reported political discussants have characteristic interaction patterns and can be predicted from sensor data. Mobile features can be used to estimate unique individ- ual exposure to di erent opinions, and help discover surprising patterns of dynamic homophily related to external political events, such as elec- tion debates and election day. To our knowledge, this is the rst time such dynamic homophily e ects have been measured. Automatically esti- mated exposure explains individual opinions on election day. Finally, we report statistically signi cant di erences in the daily activities of individ- uals that change political opinions versus those that do not, by modeling and discovering dominant activities using topic models. We nd people who decrease their interest in politics are routinely exposed (face-to-face) to friends with little or no interest in politics.U.S. Army Research Laboratory (Cooperative Agreement No. W911NF-09-2-0053)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Award No. FA9550-10-1-0122)Swiss National Science Foundatio

So close, yet so far away? the effects of city size, density, and growth on local civic participation

Recent studies in the U.S. context have suggested that political participation is a function of the size and concentration of a city’s population. Most of this research focuses on the idea that there is an optimal size and concentration of population that favors active political participation in terms of a higher propensity to vote in local elections, contact local officials, and attend community meetings. The conventional argument suggests a negative relationship between city size and political participation that is mitigated to some extent by the deeper social interactions generated by increased population density. We extend this research by also investigating the influence of population growth on the broader concept of civic participation. Civic participation is a multidimensional concept that requires the use of a broad set of indicators. We expand the number of measures to gauge civic participation at the local level by including data on the formation of volunteer associations, volunteer fire brigades and not-for-profit organizations as well as voter turnout. We test the hypotheses derived from extant research using aggregate data collected from Portuguese cities and discuss the implications of our findings for the literature on local civic participatio

All in the family: partisan disagreement and electoral mobilization in intimate networks—a spillover experiment

We advance the debate about the impact of political disagreement in social networks on electoral participation by addressing issues of causal inference common in network studies, focusing on voters' most important context of interpersonal influence: the household. We leverage a randomly assigned spillover experiment conducted in the United Kingdom, combined with a detailed database of pretreatment party preferences and public turnout records, to identify social influence within heterogeneous and homogeneous partisan households. Our results show that intrahousehold mobilization effects are larger as a result of campaign contact in heterogeneous than in homogeneous partisan households, and larger still when the partisan intensity of the message is exogenously increased, suggesting discussion rather than behavioral contagion as a mechanism. Our results qualify findings from influential observational studies and suggest that within intimate social networks, negative correlations between political heterogeneity and electoral participation are unlikely to result from political disagreement